How many points for safety

[PEARCEY]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

Why's that?

When I looked back at other seasons they were roughly on the same points at the same point as the lowest of the six at the top are on now.

In the last 8 years, teams needed 75 points in 2002, 2006 and 2007
74 points in 2003 and 2009
73 points in 2004 and 2005
70 points in 2008

That's why I thought aim for 74, anyway.

Palace were doing well and have been hit by the 10 point deduction. If that hadn't happened they would have been looking to finish in or around 6th.
Cardiff are in a real mess. Just look at their web-site. They are in deep deep financial trouble and recent performances suggest its now affecting the players.
Blackpool are really not that good and will do very well to hit 70 points.
Recent seasons don't always provide an accurate guide. There seem to be awful lot of teams clustered in or around the edge of the play-offs down to Sheff Wed. So I think 6th place won't require as many points as usual this time around.

[Sarah Star]

All the more reason to aim for a play-off position then

Only a few months ago I said I'd be worried if we got promoted with the team we have, but now I feel that maybe we could manage to hold our own in the Prem after all.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

A'ight, now that's just crazytalk!

We just left ourselves too much to fix with the atrocious home form that continued into the new year, so a top-six finish is not on for our guys --notwithstanding what I believe will be the lower than normal bar to the attainment of one

Too many sides between us and sixth right now, and not enough games left --with the Toon, Albion and Forest certs for half of the top six, Swansea (on 59 points with 11 games left) should have the cushion that they need to provide a soft landing from any late stumble, and a minimum of two sides now in front of us will match or exceed our performance the rest of the way

[PEARCEY]

A'ight, now that's just crazytalk!

We just left ourselves too much to fix with the atrocious home form that continued into the new year, so a top-six finish is not on for our guys --notwithstanding what I believe will be the lower than normal bar to the attainment of one

Too many sides between us and sixth right now, and not enough games left --with the Toon, Albion and Forest certs for half of the top six, Swansea (on 59 points with 11 games left) should have the cushion that they need to provide a soft landing from any late stumble, and a minimum of two sides now in front of us will match or exceed our performance the rest of the way

I'm not convinced Chi. Win our next two games and we may well be closing in on Cardiff who are away to Leicester and Coventry. I know teams like Middlesboro, Blackpool and Sheff Utd may pick up a decent points haul in those games but we are not that far behind them.
All still to play for but we have to win the next two to have any realistic chance.

[Sarah Star]

Well alright, it is a big ask to actually make it up there and it's a huge mountain climb to make up for the points we didn't get earlier in the season, but not totally impossible given what we've seen this year.

I'd rather be aiming for a play-off place than battling not to get relegated... it's a mental thing.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Totally with you on the mindset thing SS --go ahead and set it as a goal in the dressing room and give chase all of that

The fact is that the only means available for getting out of the dungeon was by winning our way out anyway, and we ain't scooted all the way clear just yet

P-man, you've seized upon it: we put ourselves in a position in which only something very close to perfection from a points-won standpoint is going to suffice; we weren't mired all that deeply amongst the bottom three but still needed every last point from four wins on the spin (culminating in Palace away) just to be able to poke our snouts above and over the edge --that illustrates just how good you've got to be in order just to move not very far at all

Still, I'm quite sanguine about the eventual outcome and am very much enjoying the intervening speculation and discussion, etc --I mean, I'm hanging out on The Team board, f'r cryssake

[Ian Royal]

Lots of points flying all over the place and a team well adrift at the bottom. That says to me fairly high total, so I'm going 51 needed.

I'm also going for 71 for the play offs. We'll finish on 57.

[Gordons Cumming]

What is the least number of points needed for play-off?

[RoyalChicagoFC]

What is the least number of points needed for play-off?

Y'mean, like, ever? And only at this level?

[leww_rfc]

Cue Snowball, cause I ain't gotta clue

[Ian Royal]

What is the least number of points needed for play-off?

The same number as the team finishing in 7th (but with a better GD), after 46 games.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

What is the least number of points needed for play-off?

70 is the lowest points total for a sixth-place finish
--at the second level
--comprised of 24 teams
--during the "play-offs era"
--and exclusively involving sides from the second level (with no top-flight side entered in a "relegation playoff," in other words)

This is the format in effect from the 1988-9 season, and has involved the sides finishing in 3rd thru 6th with, erm, one* exception

It's been done twice, first by Brighton in 1990-1 and again by Watford in 2007-8

*Correction (f*ck!): Two, actually --Brighton did indeed finish 6th in 1990-1, but because the top flight was expanded to 22 sides from the following season (the first of the Premier League), the top three sides got automatic at the end of 1990-1, and 4th thru 7th were entered in the promotion play-offs

Sorry about the edits on 2nd April --was trying to copy/paste, inadvertently went into edit mode and stayed there

[JC]

What is the least number of points needed for play-off?

Y'mean, like, ever? And only at this level?

70 is the lowest points total for a sixth-place finish
--at the second level
--comprised of 24 teams
--during the "play-offs era"
--and exclusively involving sides from the second level (with no top-flight side entered in a "relegation playoff," in other words)

This is the format in effect from the 1988-9 season, and has involved the sides finishing in 3rd thru 6th with, erm, one* exception

It's been done twice, first by Brighton in 1990-1 and again by Watford in 2007-8

*Correction (f*ck!): Two, actually --Brighton did indeed finish 6th in 1990-1, but because the top flight was expanded to 22 sides from the following season (the first of the Premier League), the top three sides got automatic at the end of 1990-1, and 4th thru 7th were entered in the promotion play-offs

To be a little pedantic you could say 68 is the lowest total that would have resulted in a place in the play-offs, ie 67 is the lowest total for a team finishing 7th so 68 would have been enough. That has only happened once, in 2005/06, when some team finished top wih 106 points

[fozziebear]

http://www.thestar.co.uk/owls/Reading-s ... 6141520.jp

Interesting post from Alan Irvine SW manager.

[Platypuss]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

So Blackpool to finish out 5W 3D 3L then (and Cardiff out)

Makes sense, and I could see Leicester tumbling out too, thus opening up a second spot to a side with a massive finishing kick (but I've precious little hope it'll be us)

Coventry if the current form guide has any say.

[Sun Tzu]

You can go almost to the auto spots and think 'they really aren't that good'.

[londinium]

10 wins from 13 games will do me and my RTG's

[moo]

We can drop 7 points and make the playoffs

Something to aim for, if we did make it, we'd be the form team!

[M-U-R-T-Y]

More points than the team in 22nd.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Just a personal hope is that we finish ahead not only of the bottom three but indeed by a minimum of ten points clear of, and with a better goal difference than, Palace

70 is the lowest points total for a sixth-place finish [under the normative definitions]

It's been done twice, first by Brighton in 1990-1 [when an expanded Premier League for the following season meant three automatic promotions and 4th thru 7th went to the play-offs] and again by Watford in 2007-8

To be a little pedantic you could say 68 is the lowest total that would have resulted in a place in the play-offs, ie 67 is the lowest total for a team finishing 7th so 68 would have been enough. That has only happened once, in 2005/06, when some team finished top wih 106 points

Not pedantic at all --quite correct, and in fact it gets us closer to the real answer...which would require, as I've sort of hinted at, that we go thru each season, pore over match results from the final day going backwards, and retrospectively scrutinise the division table so to determine at precisely what point it became certain that the top six finishers were locked in and, therefore, all points subsequently gained and dropped by them and the also-rans were irrelevant (to the object of finishing amongst the top six, that is; specific final placement and automatic promotion may still have mattered to those still jockeying for such rewards, of course)

In any event, that's a project for which I ain't volunteering!