Betting odds - irrelevant?

[West Stand Man]

Again, true. The bookies are always better off if the outsider wins. As the favourite is more heavily backed the bookie will cut its odds to make it less and less attractive an option. The less an outsider is backed the longer the odds become, partly in an attempt to encourage more people to follow it.

If a favourite doesn't win it is the punters who got it wrong as it was them who backed it up to favourite status.

[BR2]

Check out the odds for our next game at Arsenal.
I would guess that it would be something like:-
Arsenal 1/4
Draw 7/2
Reading 8/1

I wouldn't bet with you, you tight bugger

Have just checked out the odds with Bet365 and my guessed odds were indeed a bit skimpy:-.
Arsenal 1/4
Draw 5/1
Reading 10/1

That is the first time I have ever noticed the draw being as high as 5/1.
In fact looking at the whole programme that day in England and Scotland there is only one longer-priced draw and that is Rangers v the mighty Stirling Albion where the draw is 15/2 and Rangers 1/10.
In England only the Man City v Newcastle game comes near ours with the draw at 9/2 and Man City 3/10.
In the very competitive Championship no draw is greater than 3/1.

[southbank1871]

Do neither City or Newcastle tend to draw games or something, as that seems a massive price?

[Maguire]

Generally, in fact, the bookies do better when an outsider wins.

This.

We all seem to be in rare agreement here.

[southbank1871]

Yep, the bookies take a relative hammering when the favourite wins the National or the Gold Cup.

[hughsies no.1]

Betting odds in markets such as manager markets are irrelevant as it only takes a couple of £5/£10 bets on a manager for the odds to come tumbling in which will cause a domino effect throughout the industry. As soon as bookies take a couple of bets on a selection they will take note of the location of the punter then think that someone is in 'the know.'

For example, BMcD is currently 40/1 with SkyBet to be our next boss. As crazy as that sounds if they took say 4/5 bets from the reading area at £5 each those odds will cut to about 10/1 which in turn will make other bookies cut their price. Next thing will be SSN having a news story saying a 'flurry of bets' have been placed on BMcD to return & be the next RFC manager.

The markets aren't in place for bookies to make money, more so bookies can get PR leverage out of them. The max bet on each selection will be cut as they won't want to take a big liability on them.

[Royal Rob]

More media obsession with the odds - because no one knows anything else:

http://www.getbracknell.co.uk/sport/foo ... ew_manager

Reading Post looks like it has become a Ladbrokes press release.

[Ouroboros]

Betting odds in markets such as manager markets are irrelevant as it only takes a couple of £5/£10 bets on a manager for the odds to come tumbling in which will cause a domino effect throughout the industry. As soon as bookies take a couple of bets on a selection they will take note of the location of the punter then think that someone is in 'the know.'

For example, BMcD is currently 40/1 with SkyBet to be our next boss. As crazy as that sounds if they took say 4/5 bets from the reading area at £5 each those odds will cut to about 10/1 which in turn will make other bookies cut their price. Next thing will be SSN having a news story saying a 'flurry of bets' have been placed on BMcD to return & be the next RFC manager.

The markets aren't in place for bookies to make money, more so bookies can get PR leverage out of them. The max bet on each selection will be cut as they won't want to take a big liability on them.

I think you might be overstating the case here - ok it depends on the liability a bookie is prepared to accept on a given market, but I really doubt that a few £5 bets could change odds in a market for a Premiership team's boss.

I don't know whether this is commonly understood, but bookies pay particularly attention to who is placing the bet. I used to work at Hills, and some customer accounts would require than any bet, even for £5, would have to be run past a referrals team before they could be placed. More often, this would be necessary only when a customer staked £50 or £100 or whatever.

In extreme cases they simply decline to accept the bets off someone who is an expert in a particular sport, particularly one that is less common and therefore the bookies have done less research (eg French Horse Racing). If you were ever under the impression that this was a level playing field...

[Barry the bird boggler]

Betting odds are generally totally irrelevant as there may well be 3 or 4 front runners so it's nor real surprise when one of them is appointed. Also they can be skewed by someone with more money than sense suddenly slapping a lot of money on an outsider which then drastically reduces the odds which then generates more interest and speculation on them which in turns leads to other punters taking a chance.

So in other words just ignore them!

[creative_username_1]

Do neither City or Newcastle tend to draw games or something, as that seems a massive price?

Games aren't priced like that

it's the relative strength of the two teams (assesesd over a 30-33 game period) coupled with home or away
on average home advantage 50% win - 25% draw - 25% lose

The table as it stands now is a very good indicator of the relative merits of each team (kinda stating the obvious but i'm talking
more about testing the odds afterwards and seeing that they fall into certain confidence levels).

I profiled each team on WLD, GD (more variables do not necessarily result in better predictions - i've actually found that one variable
tests as well). The premise being if you win more games and score more goals you are a stronger team. It was then just a matter of
going through every result since football began (1992) to get the probabilities of team of team A v team B. (cba explaining it all here
unless anyone is interested and i have more time)

It had nothing to do with head to head results. I'm unconvinced by the value betting concept in most events (tiny sample size, information
is widely distributed and accessible). It seems intuitive that if i have more information i will be better informed but again not convinced
this is the case. Signal v Noise etc etc.......cba

[Millsy]

Thanks everyone for the input. Makes more sense to me now.

[TheWhisper]

In this market as in most football manager markets, laying the favourite is the way to go.
So far we have had 3 different people at odds on for the job.

[Royalwaster]

In this market as in most football manager markets, laying the favourite is the way to go.
So far we have had 3 different people at odds on for the job.

Excuse my ignorance - how do you lay the favorites? Is it the same as getting laid?

[TheWhisper]

There are peer to peer betting exchanges which www.betfair.com is the biggest. you can choose either to place a bet on something or to lay someone elses bet

[hughsies no.1]

Both Adkins & Poyet have been 1/10 shots in the last week.

More evidence that manager betting markets are completely irrelevant.

[Ouroboros]

Both Adkins & Poyet have been 1/10 shots in the last week.

More evidence that manager betting markets are completely irrelevant.

They're a reflection of where the money is going. What do you expect them to be - a reliable indicator of the eventual state of mind of a russian businessman?

[Rex]

I expect bookies love any new rumours flying around. Curbs is the next candidate

[hughsies no.1]

Both Adkins & Poyet have been 1/10 shots in the last week.

More evidence that manager betting markets are completely irrelevant.

They're a reflection of where the money is going. What do you expect them to be - a reliable indicator of the eventual state of mind of a russian businessman?

Refer back to my earlier post in this thread...

[72 bus]

Both Adkins & Poyet have been 1/10 shots in the last week.

More evidence that manager betting markets are completely irrelevant.

They're a reflection of where the money is going. What do you expect them to be - a reliable indicator of the eventual state of mind of a russian businessman?

The money goes to whatever story Sky Sports News is pushing at the moment.
Must be great being a bookmaker with your own satellite Sports news channel that can make up anything it wants.

[creative_username_1]

yep they must be making at least tens of pounds of the Reading manager market